Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 11.103515 13.603340 16.395990 19.726854 23.570478 27.845491 32.937903
2026-02-01 7.567451 10.752068 14.715158 19.920796 26.482757 34.381258 44.499441
2026-02-08 5.406963 8.704325 13.186267 19.533197 28.079123 38.966002 53.634055
2026-02-15 3.947244 7.138186 11.836588 18.940285 29.050481 42.540389 61.460169
2026-02-22 3.203558 6.406540 11.451937 19.498646 31.465180 48.013956 71.941250
2026-03-01 2.473185 5.498232 10.605427 19.195498 32.526501 51.600613 79.975545
2026-03-08 1.977659 4.862881 10.058215 19.225860 33.997628 55.764266 88.938995
2026-03-15 1.477493 4.073940 9.095237 18.424805 34.062528 57.815628 94.922006
2026-03-22 1.252137 3.785533 8.966985 18.980600 36.267190 63.117891 105.821694
2026-03-29 1.038918 3.460344 8.706236 19.253037 37.997338 67.751935 115.898081
2026-04-05 0.872519 3.195899 8.515008 19.612290 39.870201 72.669239 126.573086
2026-04-12 0.739695 2.975452 8.373398 20.034814 41.857694 77.836226 137.806521
2026-04-19 0.563303 2.579786 7.809797 19.638322 42.495088 81.058356 146.494042
2026-04-26 0.454435 2.344583 7.569836 19.866887 44.286604 86.294076 158.640392
2026-05-03 0.340982 2.032536 7.071970 19.482571 44.893883 89.556457 167.738887
2026-05-10 0.246718 1.729612 6.519389 18.891046 45.033679 91.995333 175.560738
2026-05-17 0.206197 1.626943 6.484493 19.448276 47.430815 98.434628 190.182332
2026-05-24 0.152778 1.421332 6.103068 19.145748 48.083078 101.818521 199.820322
2026-05-31 0.117735 1.279743 5.876028 19.176048 49.398198 106.425771 211.661783
2026-06-07 0.078513 1.064446 5.347619 18.376639 48.912643 107.724784 217.884661
2026-06-14 0.064933 1.009627 5.347938 18.931290 51.331397 114.457772 233.688912
2026-06-21 0.050925 0.932478 5.247182 19.203170 53.150121 120.138139 247.827615
2026-06-28 0.040357 0.869518 5.182017 19.561689 55.177620 126.284702 262.963191